|Today’s results||14 / 6-5-4|
|2020 Global 1109||1109 / 399-364-454|
|Earn% of first choice||35.98%|
|% Win of Top 3 Choices Overall||36.58%|
|Best choice 2020 in the money -727 -1.109||65.55%|
|Best selection ITM / SAR 53-78||67.95%|
|Best winning selection / SAR 30-78||38.46%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 42-55||76.36%|
|Best Picks Win / CD 22-55||40.00%|
|“Key horses” @ SAR 11-4-1-1||36.36% wins / 54.54% ITM|
|“Key horses” @ CD 10-3-3-2||30.00% Win / 80.00% ITM|
|“Key horses” in 2020 149-50-35-21||33.56% wins / 71.14% ITM|
We’re stepping up a gear for the all-turf European-style Kentucky Downs today, but what a step for this weekend of the most wonderful thoroughbred live action in the Commonwealth.
There is no doubt.
Everyone’s best thoroughbred race was in Kentucky. Right here. Right now.
KY Oaks Friday.
KY Derby Saturday.
Sunday was truly a day of rest for the wallets and the breath.
Today, KY Downs and Stakes races galore.
Here’s our look at today’s map:
1st: 8-1-10 / 2-6-5-7 / 12-3 / 4…This is an 11/2 mile endurance test for the 3 year old MSW level. Wow. Long way to go. Little time to get there. I’m going with Mud pie (8), who just won a 2nd place in his first turf test at KEE in July. It was a longshot that day, but his mother has 2 turf winners out of 4 starters and this one should improve with this turf try. Well closed that day after a terrible / disturbed departure. Get a better rider for this one. Civil servant (1) lost by a nose on his first attempt on the grass last time. Also arrived late. Has worked a ball since that effort. Seems in balance. Cannot reject here. Mr. Matuschek (10) has a second, two-thirds and a fourth out of 4 departures to date. The barn reached 0.25% at the third start of a lay-up. And, this one has a certain speed to use. Works great for this one. I bet 8-1 on the whole board, then I box the top 3 exactly. I will enter the 8-1 above / below the 10-2-6-5-7-12 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-9-5 / 2-7-3-6 / 1-4… Serious criminality (8) falls back into the allocation company after two tries of Stakes. No game in the G1 Maker’s Mark at KEE in July. Almost won by sprinting at Ellis Park in the last one. Should fit well here. At speed. You have to come and catch. But you have to save energy for this hill the last 1/8 of a mile. Corruze (9) is also falling back into the ranks of allowances today. Should also appreciate the reduction in distance. Has not touched the board in 3 tries this year, but has outperformed most of them. Barn wins with 0.25% in the sprint to the road and back to the sprint. Luck. Powerful player (5) comes to a new coach for the first time after being transferred from disgraced Jason Servis. Has been performing well lately and the barn scores with 0.16% of those running for new connections for the first time. Has never sprinted this short, but looks like he’s doing well. I bet 8-5 on the whole board, then I box the first 3 numbers exactly. I type the 8-5 over / under the 9-2-7-3-6-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-3- (14) / 4-5- (16) – (15) / 9-6 / 2-7- (13)… Soft socks (8) ran a huge at Saratoga for his debut. Arrived short at the end, but was coming. Barn hits 0.29% at the start of his second career and gets a top runner to fit into the seat today. Look for a big effort here. Malice of the Bahamas (3) will come to grass for the first time today, and the barn is only 0.07%. But it made two good start to the career of a coach who is doing very well with a race or two under his belt. The dam of this one was placed Stakes and has a turf winner among the top 3 starters. Also gets a high level rider for this one. Barn hits with 0.25% of those coming back as a beaten favorite. I like. Army Woman (14) is on the AE list and will need some luck to get in the door. But should be better at the added distance, if it succeeds on board. I bet 8-3 at all levels. (I really like the 3 here.) I write the first 3 numbers exactly – whatever they are. I type the 8-3 above / below the 4-5-16-15-9-6-2 in two smaller units. See who enters the AE list or not.
4th: 9-10 / 6-8 / 3-11-7 / 5-2-12… Grand midi rider (9) Virginia ships for this effort. Has been good lately, hitting the board in 5 of the last 6. Three wins in this group. Has a score of 7-2-2 in 21 starts over this distance. Barn is also hitting with 0.33% of those returning as the favorites beaten. Like the choice of the rider. Has already won on this one. Ruler of the Nile (10) has never covered this distance and has just landed on the grass for the first time on the last start. Run well at sprint distance. Drop a little in class for this one. Should help. Rider has already won on this one too. Stalker. I bet the 9 to win / place / present and then box the first 2 exactly. I will enter the 9-10 above / below 6-8-3-11-7-5 in two smaller units.
5: 1-11- (13) / 10-2 / 7-5-9 / 3-6 / 4-2… Prince Royal (1) worked well for Brad Cox’s barn when it debuted at Ellis Park on August 8th. Grange hits with 0.36% when he runs on the lawn in the second start. Trainer is 8-6-1 in the last 24 starts, and this one performed well on August 31. Another winner? Hoist the mainsail (11) is a horse named after my own heart. This 2 year old son of Mizzen Mast did well in Ellis on August 16th. Was favorite that day but finished 4th. The barn strikes with 0.31% of those taking the 2nd start on the grass. In addition, the barn does much better at the 2nd start overall. Incitatus (13) must be considered if it is part of the AE list. I bet 1-11 on all levels, then I box the first 3 numbers, whatever they are. I bet 1-11 above / below 10-2-7-5-9-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-9 / 2-6-7-12 / (14) – (15) / 1-10-8 / 3-11… Moral reasoning (4) comes from Chad Brown’s barn, who normally does quite well in grass races. Right? Is not it ? From what I hear, he’s fine, right? This one has not won in 4 starts this year. But returns to the ranks of allowances and you can throw the last one – when it was totally blocked. Blocked. Gets an HOF runner and should savor these ties. Winter Battle (9) could be a candidate for Upset of the day. This one has a victory and two thirds in 4 trials on grass. From a dam who produced 4 grass winners in 8 starts and 1 Stakes winner. Luck. I bet the 4 to win / place / show. Strong. Severely. I enclose the first 3 numbers exactly. I type the 4 above / below the “all button” in two smaller units.
7th: (16) -1-2-8 / (14) -3-5-12 / 4- (15) – (13) / 9-7-10… Sequin (16) You would have to be very lucky to win this one. He must have a lot of stuff just to get into the race, as # 16 on the AE list. If she did, however? Warning. She zooms to the top of that list. Barn none. Strong candidate type. But otherwise ? I go back inside and shut up More than usual (1). This one almost won last time for Cox’s barn, which is scorching hot, as we mentioned earlier. I had a hard time debuting at Churchill Downs in June. Almost won the last time. Get the barn’s favorite rider now. Look for. Too sexy (2) is a filly that cost $ 270,000 in the September KEE 2018 yearling sale. Has 2 seconds in 4 starts so far. Barn hits with .25% with the favorites beaten. I’ll bet on the 16th if she comes in. Otherwise, I bet the 1-2 on the whole board and put the first 3 numbers in the exact one. I enter the 16 if not, I type the 1-2 above / below the 8-14-3-5-12-4 in two smaller units.
8th: 6-11-10 / 5-4-7-12 / 8- (13) – (14)… Mint Juvenile Fillies Stakes… Plum Ali (6) arrives in this one after a 2-length MSW victory at Saratoga on July 23. Awesome for beginners. The dam has a turf winner among the first two foals and may have an SW after today. May arrive late. Can run. Obtain a high level runner. Yoghurt (11) is definitely my Special upset of the day. This 2 year old ran huge in the first grass effort at KEE. I came back to try the dirt on the last try and was nowhere to be found. Why? Why? Not a good decision. Now back to the grass. Look much better. Many. Cécile’s Chapter (10) is another one that can add value to prize games. this one beat the MSW at Indy Grand by 7. Barn wins with 0.35% in 2nd start on grass and is also scorching right now. Great luck here. I bet 6-11 on the whole board, then I box the first 3 numbers exactly. I type the 6-11-1 over / under the 5-4-7 in two smaller units.
9th: 10- (14) -3 / 4-11 / 2-7- (16) -8 / 9-1 / 6-5-12… A dreamer Stakes… Passing out (10) is a 4 year old filly who likes to run 3rd more than she likes to win. But she has the capacity to win. So what are you doing? Bet on all levels, right? Shipped from Saratoga to try this one. Arrive late. Should like this course. Obtain a high level lawn rider. Luck. Tapit today (14) needs help accessing the AE list. But if in? She becomes my # 1. Varenka (3) ran 11 times on the grass. Has a 3-2-2 record. Competed against Graded Stakes in each of the last 5 starts. Should fit better here. I’ll bet on the 14th if she comes in. Otherwise I’ll bet the 10 and the… drum roll please… Our Bay B Ruth (11)… across the board. # 11 is another Special upset, too. I enclose 10-14-3-11 in one box. I type 10-14-11 over / under 3-4-2-7 in smaller units.
10th: 4-8-9 / 2-7-6 / 3-10 / 1-5… More than juvenile stakes ready… Shawdyshawdyshawdy (4) is a rather redundant name choice, but Summer Front’s 2-year-old son showed a lot of ground in Saratoga’s lone win on his debut. Barn wins with .20% of those doing the 2nd grass race and the jump-off of this one has 3 grass winners out of 3 starters. Upper jumper up. worship (8) won in his debut at Saratoga. It was the sprint. Now it’s time to stretch, but the barn wins with just 0.14% of those first shipped. The short price can be vulnerable. Pivotal mission (9) ran well in Saratoga last time around. Another young girl. But maybe ready. Obtains the winning KY Derby runner. Wow. Like that. I bet 4-9 on the whole board, then I box the first 3 numbers. I type the 4-9 above / below the 8-2-7-6-3 in two smaller units.
11th: 9-10-4 / 7-12 / 2-1-8-11 / 5-3… Tourist Mile Stakes… Flavius (9) comes from Chad Brown’s barn. Enough written. My choice, and at an odds of 6-1 ML. Just kidding, right? I’ll take this all day. All day. Living room (10) ran a huge to lose the G1 Maker’s Mark Mile last time around by a thin nostril. It was at War of Will. If he gets that one back. So long. Storm of Neptune (4) could spice up the odds here too. Was 3rd in a G2 last time and participated in 9 consecutive Graded Stakes events. In 15 grass races? Has a rating of 6-2-5. Numbers here at a price. Strong numbers for me. I bet the 9-10 on the whole board, then I box the top 3 in the exact. I will enter the 9-10 above / below the 4-7-12-2-1-8-11 in two smaller units.
Good luck (I normally need a lot) and all the best / Gene